Nasdaq Fatigue:
Is it fair now to proclaim that Father Christmas never made his way down to the financial district? The old saying “if Santa Claus should fail to call bears may come to Broad and Wall” is now in focus as the major indexes feel heavy. On the daily chart of the Nasdaq below the benchmark CLOSED almost 150 handles off its intraday lows after kissing the very round 19000 figure, but CLOSED below its 50-day SMA. Monday recorded the spinning top candle at 20000 and it feels like that will be a range in the near term and a break above or below those numbers could give some valuable clues to the direction of the Nasdaq in the first half of 2025. The WEEKLY chart demonstrated negative RSI divergence with a lower high from the summer that aligned with the bearish evening star (and doji candle in the middle of the pattern the week ending 7/12 which kicked off a 3000 handle drawdown to the low during the week-ending 8/9). Notice too, the distribution (heavy volume on declining weeks) in 3 of the last 4 weeks. The MONTHLY chart shows the bearish shooting star candle at the 20000 figure in the largest MONTHLY volume in at least a decade has been tested so far in January, and with 3 weeks still to go things could change, but this tech-heavy benchmark feels extended.