Software Loafer:
Software overall has taken the baton from the semis as seen here on the ratio chart comparing the IGV to the SMH. Notice how it retested the break above a cup base from early November during the start of 2025, and like most leading instruments do it has now formed an add-on buy point above a bull flag pattern. Below is the daily chart of the second largest holding in the IGV in MSFT and one can see its struggles. It is now 12% off its most recent 52-week highs and has now formed a bear flag formation after its second straight 6% earnings-related decline on 1/30 (after its Halloween debacle). Its WEEKLY chart shows the frailty is nothing new as it has been underperforming its software peers since last summer. I believe it needs to shake the trees for some soft shareholders and a possible double-bottom base may start which would retest a former bull flag breakout from the first week of 2024. Notice it is potentially going to record its third consecutive WEEKLY CLOSE below its 50 WEEK SMA for the first time in almost 2 years. Contrasting it too perhaps the most important semi-play NVDA one can see how both are trading wide and loose in an erratic fashion, hallmark bearish traits.