Heavyweight Bifurcation:
The two giants inside the XLY dominate the vast majority of attention. TSLA has fallen dramatically since 12/18 when it recorded a bearish hanging man candle and is now 33% off the highs made that session, and has now fallen to “just” the 10th most valuable company on the planet and is in jeopardy of losing its trillion-dollar status. The daily chart below of AMZN has put its head down and ignored the noise. It is trading in a much tauter overall way, hallmark bullish trait, than some of its mega-cap tech heavyweights like MSFT, GOOGL, and NVDA. As shareholders look forward seasonality in March is at a perfect 4 for 4 in CLOSING higher than where it started since 2021 with an average gain of better than 4%. With TSLA in freefall, AMZN is going to have to do much of the heavy lifting in the XLY. There is only so much the other components can do, even with the MCD and HD at almost 12% of the fund. The latter is trying to start a handle on a cup base and the potential pivot would be 426.29. Notice how it is outshining rival LOW on the ratio chart, as HD is 5% off its most recent 52-week highs while LOW is double that off 10% from its own annual peak.