Benefit of the Doubt:
Although I am not an index trader, I admit I have been hesitant about being sanguine regarding the Nasdaq’s prospects. I still am a bit but my tune is changing quickly. My big green light will be a decisive CLOSE above the very round 20000 figure. Notice it is still trapped between the 19000 and 20000 range basically since November. Contrary to many technical beliefs that the more times a line is touched the greater the support or resistance becomes, I think the opposite. The Nasdaq in my opinion is becoming more familiar with this PRICE territory and therefore more comfortable. Notice the Bollinger Bands are tightening, much like they did just before the election, and that is a good indication that a big move is imminent (the direction is ambiguous). Comforting the bears belief that 20000 is a brick wall is the numerous dubious candlesticks there including a harami on 12/17, a doji on 1/6, and a dark cloud cover on 1/24. It has not been able to record 3 straight daily CLOSES above 20000, but this week has the first WEEKLY CLOSE above 20000 after 5 prior weeks were above it intraweek dating back to last December. We are now past earnings season for most of the notable tech names and survived, another notch the bulls can put in their hat. Paint me bullish. The onus is on the bears here and next week feels like it will determine the near-term trend for the first quarter at least. The long weekend will not provide much comfort for the uneasy grizzlies.