Energy Bid:
Energy continues to trade bullishly and the daily chart of the XLE shows how it has been resilient. For the last one year it has traded roughly between the lows 80s and mid 90s and we can see once again that it has penetrated the 90 figure in mid March for the fifth time in the last 6 months. Eventually this is going to make contact with the very round par number. On the WEEKLY ratio chart notice how the XLE is acing well POST break above the downtrend between Q4 ’23 and the end of 2024. Above the 95.92 cup base trigger this would carry a measured move to 111. In our last energy note we spoke of the admiration we had for the CVX MONTHLY chart and March recorded a bullish hammer and is now within a couple percent of a cup base trigger of 171.82 (notice the nice digestion in the 2 1/2 year pattern following the big move from 2020 to late 2022. Top holding XOM is now approaching a cup base trigger of 122.22 and this would be a solid 1-2 punch for the whole group. Over the last one month XOM is outperforming up 7% as CVX has added 5%. COP, the 3rd largest component in the fund, is pressing up against the 200 day SMA to the upside and bulls want to see a firm break above unlike the stalling it did there, and the eventual failure last November. Its 200 day SMA is starting to flatline. The energy move may be gaining steam.