They say it is not where you start, but where you finish, and looking at the action Thursday and Friday for the leading Nasdaq and Russell 2000 there is not much to take away positively. The Nasdaq followed through lower to end the week after yesterdays bearish engulfing candle, thanks to a very weak software arena. It recorded bearish engulfing candles on 3/13 which led to a 6.5% plunge the week ending 3/23, and one again on 6/7 that it was able to shrug off temporarily. Which Nasdaq will show up next week? On a weekly basis it registered a dubious doji candle falling .7%. The Dow slipped 2%, the S&P 500 by 1% and the Russell 2000 was UP .1% and remains on a current 8 week winning streak. On a YTD basis the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 still maintain a sizable lead with the Nasdaq up 11.4 and the Russell 2000 by 9.8%, compared with the S&P 500 up 3% and the Dow DOWN .6%.
Looking at individual sectors there was some clear bifurcation Friday with energy acting firm with the XLE higher by 2% on OPEC news. I am still skeptical on the space, until it clears 79 as it is a long term triple top. Additionally I was very quizzical at the announcement last week of XOM hiring a team of energy traders to boost profit and we could look back and say that called the top in the space. Rounding out the top were were the materials adding 1.5% and the pesky utilities and staples rose .8 and .7% respectively. Lagging was technology and financials as the XLK and XLF fell .3 and .5%. There is good and bad news for the XLK. It is readying itself for a retest of the round 70 number which doubled as a bull flag breakout on 6/1, but it was unable to complete a bullish 3 week tight pattern. On a weekly basis the XLU was clearly the best actor as it advanced 2.4%. Next week it will be vying for its first 3 week winning streak in nearly 8 months.
There has been a lot of talking about weakness in the industrials, especially since the incessant chatter about tariffs. A peek at the XLI shows a big volume weekly loss of 3.4% this week, and it was the SIXTH week of distribution alone in the last 4 1/2 months. The ETF is now in correction territory off 10% from its most recent 52 week highs, and below is a member of the space in XLI and how it was presented in our Thursday 6/21 Game Plan. The former best of breed name CLOSED decisively underneath its 200 day SMA, a line that previously provided comfort for well over a year. The stock is now 17% off most recent 52 week highs and on 6/21 it broke below a bearish head and shoulders trigger of 68 and Friday retested it nearly precisely and fell back hard. It slumped 6.9% its second largest weekly loss since the week ending 1/9/15. As the saying goes nothing good tends to happen under the 200 day SMA.