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"River" Runs Through It: The Amazon in South America is the longest in the world, and it is the largest holding in the XLY at almost one-quarter of the fund. It commands respect not only in the consumer discretionary space but overall market as well. The daily chart below of AMZN is self-explanatory and last week it took charge against the second-largest holding in the fund TSLA. Tesla recorded a bullish harami on Friday with a very tight inside range compared to the Thursday session which slumped 14% on the heels of a TWTR feud with the commander-in-chief. Interestingly, peer RIVN has been holding its own against TSLA since the start of 2025 and is now touching its rising 50-day SMA for the first time since breaking above a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation, often a solid entry point. Getting back to AMZN its WEEKLY chart now has the look of a cup with handle pattern as it now has 4 straight CLOSES above the 50 WEEK SMA and volume trends are very positive. On its MONTHLY chart, it recorded a nice bounce off the 50-MONTH SMA this April, very similar to the move last August which ignited a 5-month win streak. Deja vu?

Time For a Breather: Or will it be something more ominous? The tech leaders which demonstrated leadership since the 4/7 lows feel they have been wounded. I do not feel it is mortal, but nothing goes up in a straight line, and while it is ok to declare that one would need evidence to back the theory up. For a technician that could come with the presence of bearish candlesticks. The daily chart below of PLTR which was the very first to breakout above a double bottom with handle trigger of 99.09 taken out on 4/23. Four doji candles in the last month, which are adept at signaling potential changes from the prevailing direction suggest some caution here. CRWV, the epitome of momentum in this market, completed a bearish evening star pattern Thursday falling 17%. One caveat is that it recorded one on 5/29 too and a bearish dark cloud cover candle on 5/22 and ignored both of those. Is the third time the charm for shorts to feel validated? CRWD recorded its own doji candle today after a nearly 200-handle run from the very round 300 figure. AAPL, trying to remain at a $3T market cap, posted a sneaky doji Wednesday at a downward-sloping 50-day SMA. And AVGO down slightly after hours on earnings and a healthy tech flush may be upon us. 

Nothing "Soft" About It:  Competition is always a good thing, and inside the tech sector software and the semiconductors have been rivals. It has been one sided in softwares favor recently, but the semis in the last 5 weeks have stood up well for themselves. You can see this on the bottom of the daily software chart below of the IGV (did record bearish harami cross, doji candle Wednesday). Now remember ratio charts just show how 2 instruments are acting against one another relatively speaking. On an absolute basis both can be acting well, and that is what is happening at the moment with the SMH and IGV. Each one is keeping the other honest. With the IGV one has to come away impressed how it has digested the huge run off the early April lows. During the 5 of 6 week winning streak the weeks ending between 4/11-5/16 it produced four WEEKLY gains of 7, 9, 5, and 5.5% and all of them CLOSED at or well within the upper half of the WEEKLY range. The last 2 have traded in taut fashion and this week so far which has formed a bull flag, a positive development. These normally resolve to the upside in a continuation pattern, and give this ETF credit after top ten holding CRWD fell 6% after an ill received earnings reaction. It followed a recent pattern of software security stocks not acting well PRICE wise folling a release as we discussed in our 5/29 Technology Note. CRWD was able to bounce near a bull flag breakout pivot of 350 Wednesday. 

Crude Awakening:  Oil enjoyed a nice start to the week Monday surging more than 3% on OPEC news and an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The WEEKLY chart below of WTI shows the commodity has been producing some bullish candlesticks as of late (notice the rare doji candle in September 2023, just the third since the start of 2023, which called the top just above the very round 90 number). Another thing to like is the bullish divergence with the black ADX signal line which is rising powerfully since March as PRICE has fallen/consolidated. Additionally, the distance between the green and red lines is its widest in 2.5 years, and these are likely to start converging shortly. I feel that the recent lows in the upper 50s are a good area to play against and this could go on to retest the break below the bearish descending triangle trigger of 67.50 where it should encounter some fierce resistance. This big move Monday could be nothing more than the start of a dead cat bounce or something more positive. I think many are positioned bearishly and the surprise could be to the upside.

Biotech Bounce?   This possibility has been discussed ad nauseam and that could be one of the reasons that this time may prevail. No one really left with belief, and this can catch market participants by surprise. Of course, hope is not a strategy, so we need to rely on PRICE and technicals. Below is the daily chart of the XBI and it is putting up a fight, but has done this plenty of times before only to falter. I like the way it is fighting here, but it has to clear the downward-sloping 50-day SMA decisively for me to think this time is for real. On its MONTHLY chart here notice how this has bounced forcefully at the round 70 number as it did in April, and the last 3 times swimming in that area PRICE moved upward to 175, 95, and 103. Could a similar run be in the cards? Top ten holdings in the XBI that could help are GILD which is quickly building the right side of a cup base after filling in a gap from the 2/11 session on 4/25. A bearish evening star was completed on 4/11 and look for the heights to be achieved before Q2 comes to an end. INCY has carved out a bull flag and a break above carries a measured move to 74, but these formations below the 200-day SMA tend to be failure-prone. Perhaps waiting for a CLOSE or two above the secular line makes sense.